Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk prepare to face off in the next obesity drug battleground

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are set to compete in the oral obesity drug market, with both companies planning to launch their respective pills in the U.S. next year, pending regulatory approval [3][4]. Group 1: Product Comparison - Lilly's oral drug, orforglipron, has shown about 12% weight loss in trials, while Novo's oral semaglutide has resulted in approximately 17% weight loss [8]. - Neither oral drug is as effective as Lilly's injectable Zepbound, which can help patients lose over 20% of their body weight [7][8]. - A head-to-head trial is forthcoming to compare the two pills, focusing on blood sugar reduction in Type 2 diabetes patients alongside weight loss [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Analysts predict that oral drugs could capture about 20% of the projected $80 billion GLP-1 obesity drug market by 2030 [10]. - Skovronsky believes that oral medications may eventually become the primary treatment for obesity globally, potentially surpassing injectables in market share [11]. - The manufacturing of orforglipron is expected to be easier due to its small molecule structure, which does not have the same food and water restrictions as Novo's oral option [12][13]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Following the results from Lilly's trial, analysts have adjusted their market share estimates, moving some projections from orforglipron to oral semaglutide, with a reduction of about $4.5 billion in 2032 sales estimates for orforglipron [13]. - Skovronsky noted the unpredictability of market dynamics compared to scientific outcomes, emphasizing the need to observe how the market evolves [14].