海外债市“风波”难平 长债利率屡创新高

Core Viewpoint - Recent weeks have seen a significant rise in long-term bond yields across developed economies, reaching multi-year highs, driven by concerns over fiscal sustainability and external risks [1][4][5] Group 1: Long-term Bond Yields - The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond is approaching 5.0%, while the UK, Germany, France, and Japan have also seen their 30-year bond yields rise to levels not seen in years, with the UK reaching 5.7%, Germany at 3.4%, France at 4.5%, and Japan surpassing 3.15% for the first time [1][4] - The increase in yields is attributed to a combination of fiscal expansion pressures and a lack of confidence in the fiscal discipline of major economies, particularly in Europe and Japan [4][5] Group 2: Supply-Side Factors - The expansion of fiscal policies in developed economies is leading to an imbalance in the supply of long-term bonds, increasing government debt burdens and pushing yields higher [5][6] - As of August 11, the US federal government debt has surpassed $37 trillion, arriving five years earlier than previously predicted, with interest payments projected to reach $1-1.2 trillion by the 2025 fiscal year [5][6] Group 3: Demand-Side Factors - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are causing investors to sell off long-term bonds, leading to a deterioration in demand structure, including reduced government purchases and declining foreign investment [10][11] - Traditional long-term bond holders, such as central banks and insurance companies, are becoming more sensitive to interest rates, shifting their preferences towards shorter-duration bonds [11][12] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term opportunities to go long on short-term US Treasury rates due to expected rate cuts, the overall trend of rising long-term yields is likely to continue [12] - The yield curve is currently exhibiting a "bear steepening" phenomenon, with both short and long-term rates rising, but the potential for further significant increases in long-term yields may be limited [12]