Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates three times by the end of the year, driven by rising unemployment claims and stable inflation data [2][10][11] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [2][4] - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [2][8] Group 2 - Inflation data shows that while overall inflation is stable, certain categories like new and used cars and housing prices exhibit stickiness, suggesting limited room for aggressive rate cuts [4][5] - The market is concerned about the potential for a "stagflation-like" scenario if inflation rises unexpectedly alongside a weakening economy [11][12] - The response in financial markets indicates a strong expectation for rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4% and the dollar index declining [11][12]
美联储9月降息已无悬念
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-09-12 16:18