【浙商宏观||李超】存款非银化“提速”，怎么看此后“搬家”？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the acceleration of deposit migration from traditional banks to non-bank financial institutions, highlighting the impact of market conditions and policy measures on this trend [1][10]. Group 1: Deposit Migration - In August, non-bank deposits increased by 1.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 550 billion yuan, while the M1-M2 spread narrowed to -2.8% from 3.2% in July, indicating a shift in deposit behavior [1][10]. - The prediction for excess household savings from 2020 to July 2025 has been revised down to 3.57 trillion yuan from a previous estimate of 4.25 trillion yuan, driven by declining deposit attractiveness and active capital market policies [1][10]. - The current stage of deposit migration is still in its early phase, with the potential for accelerated migration raising concerns about market overheating risks [1]. Group 2: Credit and Loan Data - In August, new RMB loans increased by 590 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan, with household loans showing a significant decline [2][3]. - Household loans in August totaled 303 billion yuan, down 1.6 billion yuan year-on-year, with both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans decreasing [2][3]. - Corporate loans increased by 590 billion yuan in August, but this was also a year-on-year decrease of 250 billion yuan, indicating a weak demand for loans amid economic uncertainties [3][4]. Group 3: Social Financing and Government Bonds - The social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease of 463 billion yuan, with the largest positive contribution coming from undiscounted bank acceptance bills [6][8]. - Government bonds increased by 1.37 trillion yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease of 251.9 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in local government bond issuance [9]. - The overall financing environment is expected to face pressure in the fourth quarter if no new fiscal policies are implemented [9]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank emphasizes balancing financial stability with economic support, suggesting that a moderate easing of monetary policy is likely to continue [12]. - Expectations for a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20 basis point interest rate cut by the end of the fourth quarter are noted, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [12].