AutoNation(US:AN) Benzingaยท2025-09-12 18:34Core Viewpoint - U.S. franchise auto dealerships are showing solid momentum despite tariff challenges and the expiration of EV credits, with demand remaining better than expected in the near term [1][2]. Demand and Affordability - Retail new-vehicle sales are experiencing mid- to high-single-digit growth in Q3, driven by stable consumer spending and limited price increases from OEMs despite tariffs [4]. - The expiration of certain EV incentives has accelerated demand, increasing the battery-electric vehicle mix to approximately 10% in the current quarter, up from about 7% in the previous quarter [4]. Inventory and Profitability - Inventory levels and days' supply are stable, contributing to a gradual normalization in gross profit per unit (GPU) rather than a sudden reset [5]. - Used vehicle volumes remain strong, and service lanes are experiencing healthy traffic and pricing, indicating the resilience of higher-margin fixed operations [5][7]. Market Outlook - JPMorgan has raised its Q3 estimates for U.S. franchise auto dealers, projecting about 2% above previous estimates and roughly 7% above consensus [6]. - The bank's top picks include Lithia & Driveway and AutoNation, while noting potential impacts from a recent cyber incident affecting some U.K.-exposed operators [6]. Future Risks - Looking beyond Q3, there are increasing risks to demand and GPUs as EV credits phase out and tariffs are fully reflected in vehicle prices, alongside a softening labor market in key regions [8]. - JPMorgan forecasts a U.S. SAAR of approximately 15.5 million in 2026, slightly down from 16.0 million in 2025, with potential upside if trade outcomes with Canada and Mexico improve [8].