财政、政治陷双重危机，惠誉下调法国主权信用评级

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+ due to a lack of a credible fiscal consolidation plan supported by a majority [1] Economic Indicators - France's fiscal deficit for 2024 is projected to reach 5.4% of GDP [1] - Total public debt is equivalent to 114% of GDP [1] - Debt interest expenditure is expected to be €67 billion this year, potentially exceeding €100 billion by 2030 [1] Political Context - Ongoing political instability raises uncertainty regarding the approval of the 2026 budget [1] - Economist Eric Dor stated that the downgrade is logical given the absence of a sustainable fiscal consolidation path [1] Market Implications - The downgrade may have dual impacts on France's financing environment; some analysts believe the market had already anticipated the downgrade, limiting its effect on interest rates [1] - Conversely, there are concerns that the downgrade could trigger investment restrictions for large funds, leading to selling pressure on French government bonds and increasing financing costs [1] Comparative Analysis - Currently, France's government bond yields are higher than those of Spain, Portugal, and Greece, and only slightly lower than Italy [1]