财政科学研究院院长杨志勇：中国财政政策仍有较大发力空间

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enhancing macroeconomic regulation to support stable economic growth [2][4][5]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The fiscal macro-control during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is characterized by stronger efforts, a richer toolkit, more precise actions, and greater flexibility in timing [5]. - The average annual growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has been 5.5%, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [4]. Group 2: Economic Cycle Management - The goal of macroeconomic regulation is to smooth out economic cycles, preventing significant fluctuations that could waste resources and impact social welfare [3]. - Cross-cycle regulation is increasingly important to find new growth drivers for medium- to long-term development [3]. Group 3: Coordination of Policies - Fiscal policy and monetary policy must work in tandem to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation [6]. - The issuance of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit [6]. Group 4: Fiscal Space and Debt Management - The fiscal deficit rate has increased from 2.7% to 4%, providing more room for fiscal policy [8]. - China's government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 68.7% by the end of 2024, significantly lower than the G20 average of 118.2% and G7 average of 123.2% [8]. Group 5: Future Fiscal Policy Potential - There is considerable potential for further fiscal policy action, supported by a long-term positive economic trend and a large market [9]. - Ongoing reforms in fiscal management aim to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation and increase the fiscal capacity for macroeconomic regulation [9][10]. Group 6: International Coordination - Strengthening international macroeconomic policy coordination is essential to mitigate negative spillover effects from major economies [11]. - China's active participation in global economic governance and cooperation enhances the environment for domestic fiscal macro-control [11].