Morgan Stanley(US:MS) Huan Qiu Wang·2025-09-13 02:07Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year, accelerating the timeline for rate cuts [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates consecutively starting from next week's meeting until January next year, with a total of four rate cuts anticipated [1] - The target range for the federal funds rate is projected to drop to 3.00%-3.25% by April and July 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 16-17 is widely expected to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, with a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut according to the CME FedWatch tool [3] - The U.S. added only 22,000 non-farm jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, both exceeding expectations [3] - Despite ongoing inflationary pressures, market expectations for rate cuts remain largely unaffected, with rising labor market risks providing the Federal Reserve with room to adopt a neutral policy stance [3]