日元走强渐显？花旗：日本5500亿美元投资基金或引发"迷你海湖庄园协议"

Core Viewpoint - Citi believes that the $550 billion investment fund involved in the US-Japan tariff agreement may lead to a form of a bilateral "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement," which could drive a weaker dollar and a stronger yen [1][2] Group 1: Investment Fund and Currency Implications - Japan's planned $550 billion investment in the US is likely to heavily rely on its $1.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves [1] - The investment fund established under the tariff agreement is expected to invest in US assets with maturities of 10-20 years, contrasting with Japan's current holdings of US Treasury bonds, which have an estimated duration of 3-5 years [1] - If Japan sells short-term US Treasuries to finance this long-term investment fund, it could lead to an increase in US long-term bond yields [2] Group 2: Bilateral Coordination and Market Stability - To stabilize the market, the US may pressure Japan to extend the duration of its US Treasury holdings when managing its foreign exchange reserves [2] - This high-level bilateral coordination to address potential market volatility is the basis for what Citi refers to as the "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement" [2] - From a monetary policy perspective, there is an expected ongoing trend of a weaker dollar and a stronger yen, which contrasts sharply with the recent weak performance of the yen due to political uncertainties and tariff issues affecting the Bank of Japan's rate hike path [2]