摩根士丹利、德意志银行：预计美联储加快降息步伐

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank economists expect the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts in the coming months due to slowing inflation and a weakening labor market [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Predictions - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will announce its first rate cut of 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting [1] - Deutsche Bank has increased its forecast for rate cuts in 2025 to three times, while Morgan Stanley predicts consecutive cuts in September, October, December, and January, lowering the upper limit of the target rate to 3.5% [1][1] Economic Conditions - Economists note that slowing inflation and a weak labor market create space for the Federal Reserve to move towards a neutral policy stance more decisively [1] - The labor market's deterioration is expected to lead to further rate cuts in April and July of next year [1] Long-term Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast of quarterly rate cuts of 25 basis points until December 2026, bringing rates below 3% [1] - Deutsche Bank's team believes there will be no further cuts next year, but sees potential for more cuts in 2026 due to inflation and labor market expectations [1]