楼市，大变天！

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a stable development phase, as indicated by the recent Central Urban Work Conference [2] - Urbanization in China has shown rapid growth over the past decade, with the urbanization rate increasing from 55.75% in 2014 to an expected 67% in 2024, averaging an annual growth of approximately 1.1 percentage points [2] - However, the urbanization rate growth has slowed down recently, with the increase for 2024 being only 0.84 percentage points compared to 2023, indicating a shift from high growth to a more stable phase [3] - The total population in China has entered a phase of negative growth since 2022, with a decrease of 850,000 in 2022, 2.08 million in 2023, and 1.39 million in 2024, which will likely reduce the base of urbanization and consequently the demand for real estate [3] - The real estate market is moving into a new phase characterized as a stock market era, where the focus will shift to upgrading existing housing demand rather than generating new demand [4] Urbanization Trends - Urbanization in China has been rapid, but the growth rate is now declining, with the urbanization rate nearing 70%, indicating a transition to a phase focused on quality improvement of existing urban areas [2][3] - The slowing urbanization growth rate suggests that the influx of rural populations into urban areas is decreasing, which will impact the demand for new housing [3] Real Estate Market Outlook - The era of high-speed growth in the real estate market is over, and the market is expected to enter a stock market era where opportunities will arise from upgrading existing properties rather than from new developments [4] - The future housing market will likely see more improvement-driven demand, reflecting a shift in focus from quantity to quality in real estate offerings [4]