Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil ports and the geopolitical risks that are driving up oil prices, with a premium of $7 to $9 per barrel attributed to market perceptions of energy power redistribution [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - The drone attacks have increased the risk of disruptions to Russian oil supply, countering pressures from oversupply and weak U.S. demand, leading to a rise in oil prices [1][2]. - As of September 12, 2023, WTI crude oil settled at $62.69 per barrel, up $0.32 (0.51%), while Brent crude oil settled at $66.99 per barrel, up $0.62 (0.93%) [1][2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have been paused, with significant disagreements remaining, which may lead to further Western sanctions against Russia [2]. - The drone strike on the Primorsk port, a major oil export terminal, has halted oil loading operations, raising concerns about a potential supply gap of 1 million barrels per day [2][3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The market anticipates that strong sanctions could overshadow potential oversupply, with the U.S. Treasury suggesting tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil [2][3]. - The geopolitical risk premium is reflected in the current oil pricing, with a geopolitical conflict index value of 3.2, indicating a theoretical price premium of 32% [4]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Russia is reducing its ESPO blend oil loading from 4.2 million tons in August to 4 million tons in September, a decrease of 4.8%, as part of a strategy to maintain price stability [2][4]. - The Russian Central Bank's SPFS settlement system now handles 46% of energy trade, partially mitigating the impact of SWIFT sanctions, which has reduced the effectiveness of Western financial sanctions by approximately 17 percentage points [4].
邓正红能源软实力：地缘风险溢价推高国际油价 金融制裁正重塑石油市场新逻辑
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-13 03:56