日元走强渐显？花旗：日本5500亿美元投资或引发"迷你海湖庄园协议"

Core Viewpoint - Citi suggests that the $550 billion investment fund involved in the US-Japan tariff agreement may lead to a form of a bilateral "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement," which could weaken the dollar and strengthen the yen [1] Group 1: Investment Fund and Currency Implications - Japan's planned $550 billion investment in the US is likely to heavily rely on its $1.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves [1] - The investment fund established under the tariff agreement is expected to invest in US assets with maturities of 10-20 years, contrasting with Japan's current holdings of US Treasury bonds, which have an estimated duration of 3-5 years [1] - If Japan sells short-term US Treasuries to finance this long-term investment fund, it may lead to an increase in US long-term bond yields [1] Group 2: Bilateral Coordination and Market Stability - The potential for high-level bilateral coordination to address market volatility is the basis for what Citi refers to as the "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement" [1] - Citi analysts believe that there will be a persistent tendency for the dollar to weaken and the yen to strengthen from a monetary policy perspective [1] Group 3: Yen Performance Context - This expectation contrasts sharply with the recent weak performance of the yen, which has been the worst-performing major currency over the past three months due to political uncertainty and tariff issues affecting the Bank of Japan's rate hike path [2]