拆解“提高财政收入占比”的三个关键问题

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and GDP Ratio - Recent discussions among experts suggest increasing the fiscal revenue as a percentage of GDP, with former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei advocating for this in his 2025 paper [2][3] - The fiscal revenue ratio reflects the government's ability to concentrate financial resources from the economy and its macro-control capacity [3] - Since the 1994 tax-sharing reform, the fiscal revenue ratio has shown a trend of initially increasing and then decreasing, with the ratio dropping from 21.4% during the 12th Five-Year Plan to an average of 16.7% in the first four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][6] Group 2: Tax Burden and Comparison with Other Economies - In 2024, the macro tax burden is reported at 28.2%, indicating room for improvement compared to the generally accepted 30% threshold [3] - China's macro tax burden is lower than 20% when measured by tax revenue as a percentage of GDP, which is below levels seen in OECD countries [4] - The decline in fiscal revenue ratio is linked to large-scale tax cuts implemented since 2019, which reduced the ratio from 28%-29% in 2018 to 26% in 2023 [6][7] Group 3: Need for Fiscal Reform - The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the need for a new round of fiscal reform due to the significant decline in fiscal revenue ratios [7][8] - The fiscal revenue ratio for 2023 is noted to be 26%, which is lower than the 30% average for similar income countries and significantly below the 35% average for developed countries [8] - Experts emphasize the importance of improving the efficiency of fiscal spending and optimizing the expenditure structure to ensure fiscal sustainability [4][9] Group 4: Alternative Revenue Sources - Experts suggest that besides increasing tax revenue, other methods to enhance fiscal revenue include expanding the state capital operating budget and reducing unfair tax incentives [14][15] - The state capital operating budget is seen as having significant potential for growth, especially as land finance diminishes [15][17] - The current state capital operating budget revenue is reported at 6783 billion yuan for 2024, with substantial profits from state-owned enterprises indicating room for increased contributions [15][16]