马云预言“应验”了？2026年的房价，已经出现4个信号！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the prediction made by Jack Ma regarding the real estate market, emphasizing that by 2026, housing prices may continue to decline, reflecting a trend of "housing prices like green onions" [1][3]. Group 1: Declining Demand for Marriage Housing - Marriage housing has been a crucial driver for real estate prices, with 11.428 million couples registering for marriage in 2016, significantly boosting the market [6]. - However, the number of marriage registrations has dropped to 3.539 million in the first half of the year, indicating a decline in demand for marriage housing [8]. - Experts predict that the number of marriage registrations may fall below 6 million by 2026, further weakening the housing market [10]. Group 2: Population Decline - China has experienced three consecutive years of population decline, which is a major macroeconomic factor contributing to the current real estate downturn [12]. - The trend of population decline is expected to continue until at least 2090, leading to an oversupply in the housing market [12]. - The aging population and gender imbalance among the marriageable demographic exacerbate the issue, with over 310 million people aged 60 and above [14]. Group 3: Shift to "Housing for Living, Not Speculating" - The public has adapted to the new market reality of "housing for living, not speculating," reducing the appeal of real estate as an investment compared to stocks and gold [17]. - The average listing period for second-hand homes has exceeded 110 days, making quick sales increasingly difficult [19]. - The stock market has seen a surge in interest, with the total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan, drawing investors away from real estate [21]. Group 4: Rise of Affordable Housing - The government is now promoting a dual approach of developing both commercial and affordable housing to meet residential needs [23]. - Many cities are integrating affordable housing development with real estate inventory reduction strategies, directly purchasing unsold properties from developers [25]. - Affordable housing is becoming a key strategy in urban areas to attract residents, alleviating the burden of high housing prices for ordinary workers [25]. Conclusion - The era of "housing prices like green onions" has arrived, and the focus should shift to the residential attributes of housing rather than speculative investments [27].