Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-13 07:41Core Viewpoint - The metal sector is expected to maintain strong performance with profit growth accelerating in the first half of 2025, particularly in rare metals like rare earths and tungsten, as well as nickel, cobalt, tin, antimony, and copper [1][2] Market Review - The metal market has seen a comprehensive increase, with the CITIC Nonferrous Metals Index rising by 52.5% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 34.8 percentage points [1] - From the beginning of 2025 to August 29, the best-performing sub-sectors include rare earth magnetic materials, tungsten, and nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, with increases of 123%, 91%, and 67% respectively [1] Performance and Valuation Analysis - The overall revenue of the nonferrous metal industry grew by 6.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 37.5% [2] - The sub-sector of rare earths and magnetic materials, gold, and copper showed significant profit growth, with net profits increasing by 624.1%, 58.8%, and 40.2% respectively [2] - As of August 29, 2025, the nonferrous metal sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is at 21.2 times, while the price-to-book ratio is at 2.8 times, indicating a high valuation since 2022 but still below the 2021 peak [2] Holdings and Dividend Analysis - As of the end of Q2 2025, the market value of fund holdings in the nonferrous metal sector reached 127 billion yuan, ranking 9th among 30 industries [3] - The overall dividend payout ratio for the metal industry in the first half of 2025 was 15.0%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] Market Outlook - The outlook for the metal sector remains positive, with expectations for gold prices to reach new highs following interest rate cuts, potentially hitting $4,000 per ounce [4] - Copper prices are anticipated to benefit from strong fundamentals, potentially reaching $10,500 per ton [4] - The strategic value of rare earths and tungsten remains significant, and the aluminum sector is expected to see a positive correlation between profitability and valuation [4]