特朗普已下定决心，让27国对华“下战书”，把印度也划到中方阵营

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is considering a significant shift in trade policy, aiming to establish a new trade partnership with the EU to jointly impose secondary tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese goods, which has garnered widespread international attention [1] Group 1: Historical Context - The trade war initiated by Trump in 2018 involved punitive tariffs on thousands of Chinese products, totaling over $550 billion, but resulted in a record trade deficit in 2021 [3] - Domestic opposition to these tariffs has grown, with business groups criticizing the policies for increasing costs for companies and consumers [3] Group 2: Legal Challenges - Trump's tariff policies faced legal setbacks, with a ruling from the U.S. International Trade Court in early 2023 declaring some tariffs unlawful, currently under appeal [5] Group 3: EU's Response - The EU has shown cautious interest in the proposal, particularly due to the impact of Chinese anti-dumping measures on EU pork exports, which fell by 23% in 2022, resulting in over €1.2 billion in economic losses [6] - The EU insists that the U.S. must commit to implementing similar tariffs to avoid a repeat of past unilateral actions that strained trade relations [7] Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Trump's strategy aims to create a broader international coalition to pressure China, prepare for potential unfavorable Supreme Court rulings, and demonstrate a strong stance on China ahead of the 2024 elections [11] - However, mutual trust between the U.S. and EU remains fragile, with significant internal divisions within the EU regarding alignment with U.S. policies [11] Group 5: Global Economic Implications - The potential for a comprehensive trade war among the U.S., EU, and China could lead to a global GDP loss of up to $1.5 trillion, exacerbating supply chain disruptions and inflation [12] - China's proactive trade initiatives, such as the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP, may strengthen its economic ties with other nations, countering U.S. and EU pressures [12] Group 6: Overall Assessment - Trump's proposed trade policy adjustment carries significant risks, potentially undermining global trade stability and failing to achieve its intended effects [14]