繁花与裂缝：论“寒王”的高估值韧性

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the title of "stock king" between Hanwha and Kweichow Moutai has intensified, with Hanwha's stock price surging nearly 10% before closing up 7.28%, while Moutai fell by 0.49% [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hanwha reported revenue of 2.88 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 4300% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, marking its first profit since going public [2][3] - A significant portion of the revenue, 2.13 billion yuan, came from a one-time sale to ByteDance, contributing 980 million yuan to net profit, but excluding this, the company would still be in a loss position [4] Future Projections - Hanwha has signed contracts worth 1.6 billion yuan that will be recognized upon delivery; without similar orders in 2026, revenue could drop to the range of 3.5 to 4 billion yuan, representing a 30% decline, leading to a potential loss of profitability [5] - Based on projected net profit of 1.5 billion yuan for 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE) stands at 226 times; optimistic scenarios for 2027 suggest a market size of 30 billion yuan for domestic AI accelerator cards, with Hanwha capturing 30% market share and a net profit margin of 25%, leading to a potential net profit of 2.25 billion yuan and a reasonable market valuation of 112.5 billion yuan, equating to a stock price of 315 yuan [6] Market Dynamics - The company’s 590 chip relies on SMIC's 7nm process with a yield rate of only 65%, and the cost per wafer is 28% higher than TSMC, raising concerns about production capabilities [7] - The supply chain for ABF substrates is heavily reliant on foreign suppliers, with domestic production rates below 20% [8] - The software ecosystem is also challenging, with only 72% coverage for PyTorch operators compared to 98% for CUDA, and a significant disparity in developer numbers [9] Stock Market Activity - On September 2, the weight of the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index was reduced from 15.4% to 10%, leading to passive selling of 8 million shares, which is equivalent to 1.6 times the average daily trading volume [10] - The company is facing a significant capital increase with a bottom price for its private placement set between 1200 and 1300 yuan, but large investors are only willing to accumulate shares below 1250 yuan [11] Investment Sentiment - The stock price is currently reflecting overly optimistic expectations, with a high volatility characteristic; Hanwha must continuously deliver performance to mitigate risks, or optimistic projections may be invalidated [21]