张佳炜：9月FOMC前的主角团

Core Insights - The U.S. added 22,000 non-farm jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, marking a deviation of -2.68 standard deviations from the forecast [1][2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.324%, slightly above the expected 4.3% and up from the previous value of 4.248% [1][2] - The labor market is exhibiting a "distorted balance" of weak supply and demand, leading to a more pronounced decline in non-farm employment compared to the rise in unemployment [1][3] Employment Data - The revised non-farm employment for June was adjusted from an initial value of 147,000 to -13,000, the first negative reading since 2021 [2][3] - The three-month average of non-farm employment recorded an increase of 29,000, which, while an improvement from the previous 28,000, is still the worst since July 2020 when excluding pandemic effects [3] - The employment diffusion index for one year is at 58.4, indicating that only 58.4% of companies are hiring compared to a year ago, the lowest for a non-recession period [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - The upcoming FOMC meeting in September will be influenced by three key data releases: the initial non-farm adjustment on September 9, PPI on September 10, and CPI on September 11 [4] - The current expectation is for a 25 basis point rate cut, with the possibility of 1-2 additional cuts throughout the year, aligning with market expectations [4] Market Reactions - Following the release of the non-farm data, market sentiment shifted from "bad news is good news" to "bad news is bad news," affecting asset prices [2] - The market is currently pricing in an expectation of 1.1 rate cuts in September and 2.9 cuts for the entire year [2] Trading Strategy - The market is expected to experience high data density and uncertainty, suggesting a strategy of going long on VIX and shorting rate cut expectations [5] - The recommendation includes buying U.S. stocks and 2-year Treasuries on dips while shorting 30-year Treasuries on highs, reflecting the anticipated market volatility [5]