美联储降息进入“慢车道”，全球市场驶向何方？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a slower pace of interest rate cuts has significant implications for global markets, presenting both challenges and opportunities [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy and Economic Outlook - Powell's recent statements indicate a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, suggesting that the U.S. economy does not currently signal an urgent need for rate reductions [2]. - Positive economic indicators, such as a 0.4% month-on-month increase in October retail sales, support the Fed's optimistic outlook [3]. - The labor market remains robust, with initial jobless claims data showing improvement, indicating that previous non-farm payroll weaknesses were likely temporary [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Cut Predictions - Market predictions suggest a significant slowdown in the Fed's rate-cutting pace, with expectations of only two rate cuts in 2025 instead of four, leading to a terminal rate of 3.75%-4.0% [5]. - The anticipated rate cuts include a 25 basis point reduction in December, followed by similar cuts in the first and second quarters of 2025 [5]. - The Fed's cautious stance is attributed to the current economic data being relatively strong, contrasting with past aggressive rate cuts during economic downturns [5]. Group 3: Global Market Reactions - The slowdown in rate cuts may alter the trajectory of U.S. stock markets, particularly affecting high-valuation stocks reliant on low interest rates [6]. - Emerging markets may experience reduced foreign capital inflows due to the Fed's tempered rate-cut expectations, although those with strong fundamentals may still attract investment [6]. - Changes in the U.S. Treasury yield curve are anticipated, with long-term bond yields potentially stabilizing or rising as rate cut expectations diminish [6]. Group 4: Currency and Commodity Impacts - The dollar's strength is likely to be reinforced, putting pressure on other currencies and potentially leading to depreciation in emerging market currencies [7]. - A strong dollar may negatively impact the prices of dollar-denominated commodities, creating additional challenges for commodity-exporting countries [7]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor Fed policy changes and global economic data to adjust their investment strategies accordingly [7].