多空分歧白热化！焦煤期货宽幅震荡，空头紧盯需求疲软，多头押注政策 “反内卷”

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal futures are influenced by a combination of supply and demand factors, leading to uncertainty in short-term market trends [1][2][7]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of September 12, the main coking coal futures contract (2601) closed at 1144.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.88% [1]. - Coking coal prices have shown a significant increase since early July, with prices rising from approximately 930 yuan/ton to a peak of 1400 yuan/ton before settling around 1270 yuan/ton [3]. - The overall coking coal market is experiencing a balance between supply and demand, but recent price declines in coking coal and shrinking steel mill profits are exerting downward pressure on coking coal prices [3][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The coking coal supply is expected to remain stable, with independent coking plants showing a general decline in inventory, while steel mills are likely to increase procurement ahead of the National Day holiday [4][5]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in steel mills has increased to 83.83%, indicating a rise in demand for coking coal [5]. - Coking coal imports from Mongolia and Russia are significant, with July imports reaching 962.3 million tons, an increase from June [6]. Group 3: Price Influences - The market is currently characterized by a divergence of opinions, with some investors betting on price declines due to weak downstream demand, while others anticipate a recovery based on government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [8]. - Analysts suggest that the coking coal market is likely to remain in a wide range of fluctuations, with limited upward or downward movement expected in the short term [8]. - The upcoming National Day holiday is anticipated to trigger a replenishment of inventories, which may provide support for coking coal prices [4][5].