Outlook clears for Hong Kong property market with rate cuts imminent, JPMorgan says

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong property sector is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of increased investor interest in distressed assets and improving home sales as interest rate cuts are anticipated [1][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The real estate industry in Hong Kong has faced significant challenges, with many listed property developers renegotiating loan terms [2]. - Property prices peaked before a downturn that began in 2019, with a 28.4% decline in housing prices as of March this year compared to the all-time high in September 2021. However, prices have increased for four consecutive months up to July, reducing the year-to-date decline to 0.45% [4]. - The average sell-through rate for new residential projects has been between 20% and 70%, with only developers with strong brand recognition able to sell out their inventory [6]. Group 2: Future Outlook - There is potential for the Hong Kong property market to return to previous highs if the Chinese economy experiences significant growth, although this may require patience [3]. - The current inventory of unsold flats is equivalent to 14 to 15 months of sales based on the last year's average monthly sales, indicating a supply issue that typically sees rising prices when supply is below 10 months [7]. - The US Federal Reserve is expected to implement a quarter-point rate cut, which would likely lead to similar actions by Hong Kong's monetary authority, alleviating pressure on commercial property owners and encouraging homebuyers [5].