中国反制的时间点，让美国人感到胆寒，中方等待的时机已经来了

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean market is facing a severe crisis due to a lack of orders from China, which has historically been a major buyer, leading to significant price drops and financial distress for American farmers [2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market Impact - In 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China have dropped to zero orders, a stark contrast to previous years when China would typically purchase 10% to 20% of U.S. soybean production during harvest season [2]. - The price of soybeans has plummeted to around $8 per bushel, causing storage issues and financial strain for farmers who are now considering bankruptcy [2]. - The trade policies initiated by the Trump administration, including tariffs on Chinese goods, have led to a significant reduction in U.S. soybean exports to China, from over 30 million tons at its peak to less than 15 million tons [2][3]. Group 2: Shift to Brazilian Soybeans - In 2025, Brazil has become the primary supplier of soybeans to China, with exports reaching 42.26 million tons from January to July, compared to the U.S.'s 1.657 million tons during the same period [3]. - China's imports of soybeans from Brazil hit a record 10.39 million tons in July 2025, marking a 13.92% year-on-year increase [3]. - The U.S. has lost significant market share in the soybean sector, with Brazil now accounting for 71% of China's soybean imports, while the U.S. has been relegated to a minimal role [5]. Group 3: Broader Trade Implications - The ongoing trade tensions have not only affected soybeans but also U.S. beef exports to China, which saw a 17% decline in the first half of 2025, dropping to $752.5 million, the lowest since 2023 [5]. - The U.S. agricultural sector is facing a financial cliff, with farmers urging the government to change trade policies as they struggle to cope with the fallout from tariffs and trade disputes [5][7]. - The overall trade dynamics are shifting, with China diversifying its import sources and the U.S. struggling to regain its previous market position, indicating a long-term decline in U.S. market share [9][10].