今明两年买房，3年后可能给自己找麻烦，还有4个“坏消息”要面对

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market continues to experience a long-term adjustment trend, with significant declines in both sales volume and prices, indicating a challenging environment for buyers and sellers alike [1][3][12]. Group 1: Sales and Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 12.3% year-on-year, and sales value dropped by 15.7% [1]. - As of August 2025, 67.1% of new residential prices in 70 major cities decreased month-on-month, a higher proportion than in 2024 [3]. - The price of a property purchased in 2021 for 4 million has fallen to 2.56 million, reflecting a decline of over 30% in four years [4]. Group 2: Market Liquidity - The nationwide residential inventory turnover period reached 23.7 months in 2025, extending by 4.2 months compared to 2024, indicating a slowdown in sales [6]. - A real estate agency reported a 74% decrease in transactions, with only 23 properties sold in the first eight months of 2025 compared to 89 in the same period of 2024 [6]. - The difficulty in selling second-hand properties is evident, with significant price drops and prolonged listing times [6]. Group 3: Rental Market Dynamics - The rental yield ratio is excessively high, exemplified by a property in Shanghai valued at 8 million with an annual rent of 90,000, resulting in a rent-to-price ratio of approximately 1:88 [8]. - High rental yields discourage investment purchases and suggest that renting is more financially viable, leading to a decrease in home-buying demand [8]. Group 4: Demographic Changes - The aging population is increasing, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 and older rising to 15.9%, while the youth population (0-14 years) has decreased to 14.2% [10]. - The demographic shift results in reduced demand for new housing, as older individuals typically own homes and younger generations are opting for non-traditional lifestyles [10]. - The combination of high rental yields and changing population dynamics suggests a continued downward pressure on housing prices [12].