91万就业岗位“蒸发”，美联储“豪赌”50基点降息？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates next week, with debates intensifying over whether the reduction will be 25 or 50 basis points, influenced by economic data and political pressures [2][6]. Group 1: Economic Data and Predictions - Recent economic data, including a surprising drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and a significant downward revision of non-farm employment figures, suggest a weakening labor market, paving the way for a potential 50 basis point rate cut [5][8]. - Various financial institutions have differing predictions for the rate cut, with Standard Chartered predicting 50 basis points, while others like Deutsche Bank and Barclays expect 25 basis points [7][10]. - The probability of a 25 basis point cut is currently at 90%, while the chance of a 50 basis point cut has risen to 10% according to CME FedWatch [11]. Group 2: Political Influences - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces political pressure, particularly from the Trump administration, which may influence the decision to implement a larger rate cut as a show of loyalty [15][16]. - Powell's recent shift towards a more dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting has raised expectations for a more aggressive rate cut, as he expressed concern over the labor market [13][14]. Group 3: Historical Context and Implications - Historical data indicates that every time the Fed has initiated a rate cut of 50 basis points since 1987, it has been followed by an economic recession [4][17]. - Some analysts warn that a 50 basis point cut could send a negative signal to the markets, suggesting severe economic distress, while others argue it could be seen as a proactive measure to support employment growth [18][19]. - The Fed's past rate cut cycles show that rate reductions do not always correlate with stock market gains, as evidenced by four instances of market declines during previous cut cycles [27][28].