下周，全球市场的超级“靴子”将落下

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates next week, with debates intensifying over whether to cut by 25 or 50 basis points due to weak economic data [1][2] - Political pressures and economic concerns are influencing the Fed's decision, with analysts suggesting a higher likelihood of a 50 basis point cut [1][3] - Historical data indicates that every time the Fed has initiated a rate cut cycle with a 50 basis point reduction since 1987, the U.S. has entered a recession [1][10] Group 2 - Recent employment data has been revised down significantly, indicating a potential weakening labor market, which may justify a larger rate cut [2][3] - Various financial institutions have differing predictions for the rate cut, with Standard Chartered predicting a 50 basis point cut, while others like Deutsche Bank and Barclays expect a 25 basis point cut [3][4] - The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 90% probability for a 25 basis point cut and a 10% probability for a 50 basis point cut [4] Group 3 - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent shift towards a more dovish stance has raised expectations for a larger rate cut, influenced by political pressures from the Trump administration [5][7] - The relationship between the Trump administration and the Fed has become increasingly tense, with potential implications for future monetary policy decisions [7][8] - Some economists argue that a 50 basis point cut could signal severe economic distress, while others view it as a proactive measure to support employment growth [10][11] Group 4 - Historical analysis shows that rate cuts do not guarantee a bull market for U.S. stocks, with past cycles indicating mixed outcomes for equity markets [15] - The dollar typically faces downward pressure during rate cut cycles, while gold prices often rise due to lower opportunity costs for holding non-yielding assets [15][16] - The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to be a critical event for global financial markets, influencing various asset classes and revealing the Fed's policy direction under economic and political pressures [16]