特朗普“关税战”影响远小于“理论水平”，关键原因是“豁免”

Group 1 - The actual effective tariff rate in the U.S. is estimated to be around 9%-10%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate of approximately 18%, indicating that the negative impact of tariffs on inflation and corporate profits is overstated [1][2] - The report highlights that the discrepancy between theoretical and actual tariff rates is primarily due to policy exemptions rather than transshipment practices, suggesting a deliberate choice by policymakers to maintain lower tariffs [3] - The report notes that the current trade war situation is more favorable for risk assets and provides the Federal Reserve with room to lower interest rates amid a weak labor market [1] Group 2 - The report identifies a significant gap between the announced tariff levels and the actual effective rates, with the theoretical effective tariff rate estimated at 17%-18%, the highest since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, while the actual rate is around 10% [2] - Policy exemptions are cited as the main reason for the lower effective tariff rates, with a high approval rate of 61% for tariff exemption applications submitted by companies between 2018 and 2021 [3] - The analysis of tariff impacts shows that the anticipated "tariff-flation" has not materialized, with the annualized growth rate of the tariff basket's prices remaining moderate at 2% [4] Group 3 - The report indicates that U.S. companies engaged in significant import stockpiling before the tariffs took effect, which may lead to a potential spike in goods inflation as these inventories are depleted [4] - Evidence supporting the notion that companies are absorbing tariff costs by compressing their profits is limited, as profit margins for the S&P 500 index remain stable [4]