91万就业岗位蒸发 美联储下周豪赌50基点降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates next week, with debates intensifying over whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points, influenced by economic data and political pressures surrounding Chairman Powell [1][3][21]. Economic Data - Recent economic indicators, including a surprising drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and a significant downward revision of non-farm employment data, suggest a weakening labor market, paving the way for a potential rate cut [2][5]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, indicating a deteriorating job market [2]. Predictions on Rate Cuts - Various financial institutions have adjusted their predictions for the Fed's rate cut, with Standard Chartered now forecasting a 50 basis point cut, citing a rapid shift in the labor market from robust to weak [5][6]. - In contrast, firms like Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank believe that the August employment report does not justify a 50 basis point cut in a single meeting, although they acknowledge the possibility of consecutive cuts [5][6]. Political Influences - Chairman Powell's recent shift towards a more dovish stance has raised concerns about the influence of political pressures, particularly from the Trump administration, which has been vocal about the need for significant rate cuts [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that a 50 basis point cut could be seen as a political statement of loyalty to Trump, rather than purely an economic decision [10][11]. Historical Context - Historical data indicates that every time the Fed has initiated a rate cut cycle with a 50 basis point reduction since 1987, it has been followed by an economic recession [12][13]. - The potential for a 50 basis point cut raises alarms among market participants, who fear it may signal severe economic distress [13][20]. Market Reactions - The market is currently pricing in a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 10% chance for a 50 basis point cut, reflecting uncertainty and divided opinions among investors [7]. - The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to have significant implications for global financial markets, influencing stock, bond, currency, and commodity markets [21].