Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a high probability (over 90%) of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, driven by stable inflation data and rising unemployment claims [1][5][6]. Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and slightly up from the previous month's 2.7% [1]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with a 12-month cumulative increase of 3.1%, indicating stable core inflation [4][6]. - Housing costs, which account for about one-third of the CPI, saw a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, the largest increase this year, with a year-on-year rise of 3.6% [4]. Unemployment Claims - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, indicating a cooling labor market and potential for increased layoffs [2][6]. - This rise in unemployment claims exceeds economists' expectations, suggesting a significant slowdown in hiring activity [6][7]. Economic Outlook - Recent economic indicators, including a weak non-farm payroll report showing only 22,000 jobs added in August, point towards a slowing U.S. economy [7]. - The Federal Reserve's focus may shift from inflation control to supporting employment and economic growth due to the dual signs of slowing job growth and rising layoffs [7]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI and unemployment claims data, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the benchmark 10-year yield dropping to 4% [7]. - The stock market responded positively, with major indices reaching historical highs, reflecting investor optimism amid the anticipated rate cut [4]. Political Influence - Former President Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, urging for immediate and significant interest rate cuts, which adds a layer of political pressure on the Fed [8].
降息万事俱备， 只欠美联储东风？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-13 16:21