许安鸿：黄金高位震荡回落概率大，原油仍未筑底多头难有作为

Group 1: Currency and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index showed no clear trend this week, experiencing fluctuations influenced by US employment and inflation data, closing at 97.63 [1] - US employment performance was weaker than expected, and the PPI unexpectedly declined, despite the CPI reaching a new high, leading to increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with focus on the updated dot plot which will determine the future trajectory of gold prices [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices achieved a historical high of approximately $3674 per ounce, marking a significant increase of nearly 40% this year, exceeding $1000 in value [1] - Following the new historical high, gold prices experienced a rapid decline, indicating a potential for a correction of over $100 due to a lack of new bullish support [3] - The short-term outlook for gold appears weak, with indications of a possible pullback after a strong performance since late August [3] Group 3: Oil Market - Oil prices initially rebounded to around $64 but later retreated, indicating a weak overall trend with a potential for further declines, particularly towards the $60 support level [5] - Geopolitical tensions, including Israeli airstrikes and EU sanctions against Russia, have contributed to fluctuations in oil prices, with the market showing signs of weakness [3][5] - The sentiment for WTI crude oil is at a historical low according to the CFTC report, reflecting bearish market conditions [3]