2026年美国汇款税将冲击中美洲侨汇流入

Core Insights - The proposed 1% remittance tax in the U.S. by 2026, combined with stricter immigration policies from the Trump administration, is expected to significantly impact remittance flows to Latin America, particularly affecting Central American countries that heavily rely on these funds [1] Remittance Tax Impact - The remittance tax is projected to have a relatively small effect on the total remittance volume, with an average decrease of only 0.38% for the four countries analyzed if the receiving parties bear the full tax burden [1] - However, the combination of the tax and stricter immigration policies may exacerbate the reduction in remittances [1] Financial Loss Estimates - Guatemala is expected to lose approximately $9.59 million, El Salvador $3.01 million, Colombia $2.03 million, and Mexico, despite a smaller percentage decrease of 0.33%, will see an absolute loss of $207.8 million [1] Immigration Structure - Mexico has the highest number of undocumented immigrants at 4.3 million, while Central American countries have a higher proportion of undocumented immigrants, making them more vulnerable to changes in remittance flows [1] - Guatemala and El Salvador each have 850,000 undocumented immigrants, with remittances constituting a significant portion of household income [1]