楼市下行，不止这么几年

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is facing significant challenges, with property prices declining despite new infrastructure developments, indicating a pessimistic outlook for the sector [1][2]. Market Conditions - Property prices in a previously monitored community have dropped from 90,000 to 68,000, even with the upcoming construction of a subway line [1]. - A foreign institution has revised its forecast for the real estate market's bottoming out from Q2 2025 to the end of 2026, highlighting the severity of the current situation [1]. Financial Constraints - Local government land sales are projected to generate approximately 8.5 trillion, a decrease of 4 trillion compared to 2022, with many second-tier cities experiencing land auction failures exceeding 40% [3]. - The current financial environment shows a lack of funds for significant market interventions, with only about 1 trillion of the estimated 6 trillion needed for market stabilization being available [4]. Demand and Credit Conditions - Despite the financial strain, the current mortgage environment is relatively lenient, with down payments as low as 15% and easier access to loans, even for older individuals [4]. - The demand for housing is expected to shift towards new properties due to changes in housing standards and resource allocation [6]. Future Outlook - The resolution of current market issues hinges on several conditions, including the influx of capital from potential U.S. interest rate cuts and addressing the underlying demand deficiencies [5][6]. - The potential introduction of property taxes may signal a shift in market dynamics, contingent on the fulfillment of the aforementioned conditions [5][8]. Historical Context - The current property prices are seen as artificially inflated due to leverage, with real income growth not keeping pace, leading to an inevitable correction [9]. - The market has experienced a prolonged upward trend over 20 years, suggesting that the subsequent downturn may last longer than anticipated [10].