Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in market share and adjusted its business volume guidance for 2025, indicating challenges in maintaining growth amidst a competitive environment [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a business volume of 9.847 billion items, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, but its market share decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 19.5% [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was 2.053 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.8% [1] - The company's business volume growth rate was slightly below the industry average of 17.3%, leading to a downward adjustment of the annual business volume guidance to 38.8-40.1 billion items, corresponding to a year-on-year growth of 14%-18% [1] Group 2: Revenue and Cost Structure - The average revenue per item decreased from 1.24 yuan to 1.18 yuan, primarily due to increased incremental incentives and a reduction in average item weight [2] - The increase in revenue from key accounts (KA customers) helped offset some of the revenue decline, with a contribution of 0.17 yuan per item [2] - The core cost per item rose to 0.89 yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, with the core costs (transportation + sorting) showing a slight decrease [2][3] Group 3: Profitability and Future Outlook - The gross profit per item fell from 0.42 yuan to 0.29 yuan, indicating significant pressure on profitability due to high incremental incentives [3] - The company expects an improvement in profitability in the second half of the year as the competitive environment stabilizes and the focus shifts to quality [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X [4]
中通快递-W(02057.HK)：价格竞争导致Q2盈利承压 下半年有望逐步修复