美国法院裁定，特朗普破防，2100亿美元还没捂热，先吐出去一半

Core Viewpoint - The recent ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals against the global tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration poses significant challenges, potentially leading to the return of over $1 trillion in tariffs already paid by U.S. companies [1][4]. Group 1: Legal and Economic Implications - The court ruled that Trump's tariff policy, justified by a national emergency, lacks legal basis and requires substantial evidence by October 14, or the tariffs will be terminated [3]. - If the Supreme Court does not rule in favor of the Trump administration, the U.S. government may have to refund at least half of the $210 billion in tariffs collected, severely impacting the already fragile fiscal situation [1][4]. - The potential delay in the Supreme Court's decision could result in U.S. companies facing up to $1 trillion in tax burdens, leading to significant economic turmoil [4]. Group 2: Trade Negotiation Consequences - The loss of tariff revenue could weaken the U.S. government's position in trade negotiations with the EU, Japan, and other economies, as most agreements remain non-binding [5]. - Japan and the EU may take advantage of the situation to renegotiate trade terms, which could further complicate the Trump administration's trade strategy [6]. - Conversely, India may benefit from the disruption, as it seeks to strengthen ties with China and Russia while negotiating more favorable terms with the U.S. [6]. Group 3: Broader Trade Policy Issues - The tariff dispute highlights deeper issues within U.S. trade policy, revealing flaws in the Trump administration's trade strategy that may ultimately harm the U.S. economy [8]. - The unilateral trade policies are increasingly facing challenges in the context of a reshaping global economic landscape [8].