古井贡酒(000596)：降速释压 净利率提升逻辑持续兑现

Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company's operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 4.734 billion, 1.332 billion, and 1.315 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 14.23%, 11.63%, and 11.81% [1] Revenue Composition - In H1 2025, the revenue from year-round raw liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, and Huanghelou & others were 10.959 billion, 1.184 billion, and 1.497 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +1.59%, -4.39%, and +6.68% [2] - The proportion of year-round raw liquor remained stable, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.02 percentage points to 80.34% [2] - The average price per ton for year-round raw liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, and Huanghelou was 235,200, 60,300, and 98,400 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 8.31%, 12.49%, and 4.84% [2] Market and Channel Insights - In H1 2025, revenue in North China, Central China, and South China was 0.809 billion, 12.297 billion, and 0.768 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -27.04%, +3.60%, and -5.84% [2] - The Central China region experienced growth, attributed to a solid channel foundation in Anhui [2] - The number of distributors in North China, Central China, and South China increased by 90, 161, and 25 to 1,378, 3,009, and 655 respectively, while the average distributor scale was 587,300, 4,086,900, and 1,172,800 yuan/distributor, showing year-on-year declines of 31.80%, 1.94%, and 9.43% [2] Profitability and Cost Management - In Q2 2025, the company's gross margin and net margin changed by -0.26 and +1.19 percentage points to 80.24% and 29.33% respectively [3] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 1.86 percentage points to 22.78%, attributed to improved cost efficiency due to scale effects [3] - The company's operating cash flow in Q2 2025 was 2.309 billion yuan, an increase of 48.45% [3] Investment Outlook - The company, as a leading player in the Huizhou liquor market, has a solid foundation in its home province and is preparing for a strong performance in the upcoming peak season [3] - Due to the overall industry environment, the company's profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 5.620 billion, 6.002 billion, and 6.810 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 6.299 billion, 7.207 billion, and 8.104 billion yuan [3]