爱美客(300896):低景气度+竞争加剧背景下内生短期承压 关注新品增量贡献

Core Insights - The company's H1 2025 performance fell short of expectations, with revenue of 1.299 billion yuan, down 21.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 789 million yuan, down 29.6% [1] - The Q2 2025 results also showed a decline, with revenue of 636 million yuan, down 25.1%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 346 million yuan, down 41.8% [2] Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue breakdown: - Solution revenue: 744 million yuan, down 23.8% - Gel revenue: 493 million yuan, down 23.99% - Lyophilized powder revenue: 19 million yuan - Facial embedding line revenue: 3.32 million yuan, down 4.6% - Other main business revenue: 39 million yuan, up 38.9% [3] - H1 2025 gross margin: 93.44%, down 1.5 percentage points, with declines in gross margins for solution, gel, facial embedding line, and other main businesses [3] - H1 2025 expense ratios: - Sales expense ratio: 11.1%, up 2.6 percentage points - Management expense ratio: 5.34%, up 1.3 percentage points - R&D expense ratio: 12.05%, up 4.5 percentage points - H1 2025 net profit margin: 60.77%, down 6.9 percentage points, and adjusted net profit margin: 55.6%, down 10.2 percentage points [3] Pipeline Progress - The product AestheFill has been renamed "Zhen Ai Su Fei" and officially launched in the Chinese market, with ongoing efforts in team building, channel expansion, and packaging optimization [4] - The company is collaborating with REGEN to expand globally, with an initial focus on increasing market share in South Korea [4] - Regulatory updates include submissions for botulinum toxin and minoxidil lotion, currently under review, and new product registrations for other treatments [4] - Clinical trials are ongoing for several products, with the second-generation embedding line expected to enter registration by 2025 [4] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to face short-term pressure on performance due to low industry sentiment and intensified competition in Q2 [4] - The introduction of a low-threshold light medical beauty chain model by a competitor may stimulate industry demand, with the company positioned to benefit as a leading player [4] - With the adjustment of distribution rights and the gradual rollout of its own pipeline, the company anticipates a concentrated launch period for new products like botulinum toxin in 2026, projecting net profits of 1.6 billion yuan and 2 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of approximately 38x and 29x [4]