中金：南向资金加速流入港股 有基本面的结构仍是稳健选择

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced increased volatility since September, while the Hong Kong stock market has shown signs of recovery, with the Hang Seng Index surpassing 26,000 points. The overall risk premium for Hong Kong stocks has dropped to 5.1%, the lowest since early 2018. The market is debating whether to focus on weak fundamentals or liquidity, with a recommendation to watch for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may lead to market differentiation [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Flow - Active foreign capital has seen a fourth consecutive week of inflow into A-shares, but the scale has decreased to $1.521 million compared to $1.764 million the previous week. The cumulative inflow over the past four weeks is $1.44 million, still less than the $3.7 million inflow seen in early October last year [2]. - Hong Kong stocks and ADRs have seen a return of inflows after five weeks, amounting to $6.402 million, contrasting with a $1.1 million outflow the previous week. However, passive foreign capital has turned to outflows, with $5.7 million leaving Hong Kong stocks and ADRs, and $7.6 million leaving A-shares [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The acceleration of southbound capital inflows has been notable, with $60.82 billion HKD flowing in this week compared to $33.06 billion HKD the previous week, averaging $12.16 billion HKD daily [2]. - The market is currently influenced by the anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which have led to a focus on "loose trading." This has resulted in rising U.S. Treasury and gold prices, with regional markets in Japan and South Korea also reaching new highs. Hong Kong stocks typically exhibit greater elasticity, particularly in growth and small-cap sectors [3]. - For Hong Kong stocks to maintain above 26,000 points, earnings adjustments are necessary, although this may be challenging in the short term due to weak fundamentals. The market is advised to focus on sectors with improved mid-year performance, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, technology hardware, non-bank financials, and consumer electronics [3]. - Sectors that may experience "time loss" in the short term but "space gain" in the medium term include banks and long-term government bonds, similar to the internet sector two months ago [4].