Group 1 - The narrow money supply M1 has shown a significant recovery in 2023, with a balance of 111.23 trillion yuan at the end of August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, up from 5.6% in July and 2.3% in June [2] - The gap between M1 and M2 growth rates has continued to narrow, with the M1-M2 growth rate difference decreasing from -13.4% at the beginning of the year to -2.8% in August, the lowest since June 2021, indicating an increase in liquidity [2] - The increase in M1 is attributed to a rise in corporate demand deposits, suggesting that businesses are more confident in future investments and operations, which is a positive sign for economic activity [2] Group 2 - In the first eight months of 2023, the total increase in RMB deposits was 20.5 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 9.77 trillion yuan and non-financial corporate deposits increasing by 610.6 billion yuan, contrasting sharply with a decrease of 2.88 trillion yuan in the same period of 2022 [3] - The significant change in non-financial corporate deposits, which saw an increase of 3.5 trillion yuan compared to the previous year, is a notable indicator of improved business sentiment [3] - The increase in deposits is also reflected in the rise of non-bank financial institution deposits, which grew by 2.3 trillion yuan this year compared to last year [3] Group 3 - The average interest rate for corporate deposits has decreased, with a cumulative decline of 26 basis points, which has influenced corporate deposit behavior [4] - Government financing has increased significantly, with corporate bond balances reaching 33.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, and government bonds increasing by 21.1% [4] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated since May, aimed at replacing hidden debts and supporting government investment projects, which has positively impacted corporate cash flow [4] Group 4 - The increase in corporate demand deposits is driven by lower fixed deposit rates and expanded government financing, which has improved corporate cash flow and investment confidence [5] - The balance of corporate demand deposits rose to 207.68 billion yuan in July 2024, an increase of 8.49 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a significant shift in corporate deposit behavior [5] - The sustainability of the M1 growth rate remains to be observed, as it heavily relies on government financing and its ability to stimulate corporate investment and consumer spending [5]
今年以来M1持续回升的经济意义
Hua Xia Shi Bao·2025-09-14 09:03