富宝资讯锂电部总经理吴淮民：碳酸锂库存的绝对值，或将呈现逐年攀升态势

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is currently experiencing a robust supply and demand situation, with a slight destocking phase expected in September [1][2]. Supply Summary - The reduction in lithium mica supply is effectively compensated by lithium spodumene, with spodumene production capacity utilization rising to 72.83% due to favorable hedging opportunities from previous high prices [1]. - In August, lithium carbonate (primary material) production was approximately 76,000 tons, with spodumene contributing about 47,000 tons (up 22% month-on-month), lithium mica at 15,000 tons (down 22%), and salt lake lithium at 14,000 tons (up 7%) [1]. - For September, lithium carbonate production is expected to stabilize at around 75,500 tons (down 1% month-on-month), with spodumene production projected at 49,000 tons (up 5%), lithium mica at 13,000 tons (down 12%), and salt lake lithium at 13,000 tons (down 9%) [1]. Demand Summary - The overall downstream consumption is relatively optimistic, with ternary cathode weekly capacity utilization at 55% (down 6.46% year-on-year) and lithium iron phosphate at 66% (up 15.79% year-on-year) [2]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to enter a slight destocking process in September, with a supply-demand gap of approximately -900 tons for the month [2]. - Historical data indicates that lithium carbonate production typically declines from September to October, particularly in 2024 when production at the Ningde mine is expected to halt [2]. Inventory Summary - In the same period last year, lithium carbonate inventory depletion was significant, averaging a reduction of 2,300 tons weekly. In contrast, the current inventory reduction is much slower, with a decrease of about 1,100 tons in the first week of September and only 600 tons in the second week [3]. - As of September 11, the lithium carbonate inventory stood at 131,700 tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.46% [3]. - There is a notable transfer of inventory from upstream to downstream, with upstream smelter inventory at 56,490 tons (down 2,686 tons) and downstream inventory at 44,705 tons (up 2,261 tons) [3]. Market Outlook - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain in a fluctuating range, supported by terminal demand during downward trends and facing supply and hedging pressures during upward trends [4]. - A more rational perspective on the supply-demand dynamics affecting lithium carbonate prices is encouraged [4].