徐工机械(000425)：盈利能力持续提升 国企改革不断深化

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 8% year-on-year, with overseas market growth at 17%, accounting for 47% of total revenue. The earthmoving machinery segment grew by 22%, contributing 31% to total revenue. The net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 17%, indicating stable improvement in profitability and continuous enhancement of financial statement quality. The upward trend in both domestic and overseas engineering machinery markets is expected to continue, and the company's ongoing state-owned enterprise reform and expansion into emerging businesses like mining machinery present promising growth potential [1][5]. Revenue Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 54.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.04%, with a net profit of 4.358 billion yuan, up 16.63%. In Q2 alone, revenue was 27.993 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.41% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 2.336 billion yuan, up 9.33% [2][3]. Market Performance - The overseas market and earthmoving machinery are the main drivers of revenue growth. In the first half of 2025, domestic revenue was 29.263 billion yuan, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached 25.546 billion yuan, up 16.64%, accounting for 46.61% of total revenue. Earthmoving machinery revenue was 17.019 billion yuan, a 22.37% increase, making up 31.05% of total revenue [3][4]. Profitability Analysis - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 was 4.358 billion yuan, a 16.63% increase. The gross margin and net margin were 22.03% and 8.06%, respectively, reflecting improvements of 0.7 percentage points and 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. This stable enhancement in profitability is attributed to improved market structure and the company's proactive state-owned enterprise reform and high-quality development initiatives [4][5]. Industry Outlook - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a synchronized upward trend in both domestic and overseas markets. A new cycle of equipment replacement is beginning, with policies accelerating the elimination of outdated models. The overseas market remains robust, particularly in regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America, while marginal improvements are noted in Europe and North America. The company's diverse product offerings and the growth potential of its mining machinery business, bolstered by recent asset injections, are expected to drive future growth [5]. Investment Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 7.513 billion yuan, 10.007 billion yuan, and 12.419 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 25.72%, 33.19%, and 24.10%, respectively. Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are estimated at 15.17x, 11.39x, and 9.18x [6].