中国一单没下，美国大豆被判死刑，特朗普明白，要按中国规矩办事

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean industry is facing a severe crisis due to the lack of orders from China, which was previously its largest buyer, leading to potential unsold crops and financial distress for farmers [1][3][8]. Group 1: Impact of Trade War - The U.S. soybean industry relies heavily on exports, with approximately 50% of its production designated for international markets, and China accounting for more than the total of all other buyers combined [3][6]. - The Trump administration's aggressive trade policies, including a 34% tariff and subsequent increases to 145%, have not yielded positive results for U.S. farmers, who are now at risk of unsold crops [3][10]. - The ongoing trade war has led to a significant downturn in the U.S. soybean market, with farmers facing the prospect of crops rotting in the fields due to lack of sales [1][8]. Group 2: China's Position - China is the world's largest soybean buyer, responsible for approximately 60% of U.S. soybean exports prior to the trade tensions, and has diversified its sources of soybean imports, significantly reducing reliance on U.S. products [6][10]. - As of 2023-2024, China is projected to purchase 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans, while the European Union is expected to buy only 4.9 million tons, highlighting the disparity in demand [8]. - China's strategic shift towards sourcing soybeans from countries like Brazil and Russia has further diminished the U.S. market share, with imports from Brazil alone rising to 71% [10][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The future of U.S. soybean exports to China hinges on the U.S. government's willingness to reconsider its trade policies, including the potential removal of unreasonable tariffs [12][13]. - The restoration of trust and cooperation between the U.S. and China is essential for the U.S. soybean industry to recover, as China has multiple options for soybean sourcing and is no longer solely dependent on U.S. products [13]. - The ongoing negotiations and the U.S. administration's approach will determine whether the soybean market can stabilize or if the crisis will deepen [5][12].