TF Securities(SH:601162) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-14 13:35Group 1: Swine Sector - The pig sector is experiencing a shift from profit to loss in piglet exports, emphasizing the need to focus on the expected differences in the swine sector [1] - Current average weights for pig slaughter remain high historically, while high temperatures are suppressing consumption demand, leading to continued pressure on pig prices [1] - A meeting on September 16 will analyze the current production situation and discuss capacity regulation measures, with expectations for capacity reduction in the second half of the year and into 2024 [1] - The sector is considered undervalued, with key companies like Muyuan Foods valued at 3500-4000 RMB per head, while others like New Hope and Tian Kang Biological are below 2000 RMB per head [1] - Recommended stocks include leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on New Hope and other flexible stocks [1] Group 2: Cattle Sector - The raw milk price is expected to bottom out, with potential recovery as the dairy cow capacity reduction nears its end [2] - The beef market may be entering a super cycle, but various factors such as funding and environmental concerns may limit restocking enthusiasm [2] - Companies with cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [2] - Recommended companies include Youran Dairy, China Shengmu, and Guangming Meat [2] Group 3: Pet Sector - The pet economy in China is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly rising, highlighting the importance of companies with high domestic revenue growth [3] - Key recommendations include pet food companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with additional focus on pet medical and supply companies [3] Group 4: Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is advised to focus on changes in breeding imports, as the industry has been in a downturn for three years [4] - The yellow chicken supply may contract, with demand being a core variable; prices are expected to improve as consumption increases in the second half of the year [5] - The egg-laying chicken sector is seeing high chick prices due to import restrictions, with a focus on companies with high market share [6] - Recommended stocks include Shennong Development and Lihua Group for white chicken, and Xiaoming Co. for egg-laying chickens [4][5][6] Group 5: Planting Sector - The conventional seed industry is awaiting a turnaround, with a focus on the industrialization of biological breeding opportunities [7] - The contribution of yield improvement to grain production is expected to exceed 80% in 2024, emphasizing the need for high-yield production [7] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong in the seed sector, and Xinyangfeng in agricultural inputs [7] Group 6: Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is recommended for Haida Group, which is expected to see market share growth and consistent performance [8] - The animal health sector is focusing on breaking through homogenized competition, with an emphasis on innovation and new product development [9] - Recommended companies in the animal health sector include Keqian Biological and others focusing on pet health products [9]