Core Insights - The main contract price for propylene closed at 6420 CNY/ton, an increase of 11 CNY from the previous day, while spot prices in East China and North China showed slight declines [1] - Overall operating rate for propylene decreased to 73%, down by 2% [1] - Downstream production rates and profits varied, with notable decreases in PP powder and phenol ketone, while propylene acid saw the largest increase in operating rate [1] Supply Analysis - Propylene supply is tightening due to reduced operating rates and maintenance at several facilities, including Shandong Zhenhua and Qingdao Jinneng [1] - The restart plans for Wanhua and Hebei Haiwei are expected to alleviate the tight supply situation in the near future [1] - Current inventory stands at 31,710 tons, a decrease of 5,320 tons [1] Demand Analysis - Downstream demand is weakening as propylene prices remain high, leading to reduced profitability in several sectors [1] - The operating rate for PP powder has dropped significantly, while the production of butanol and propylene acid has seen slight increases [1] - Some downstream purchasing enthusiasm has diminished, potentially limiting the upward price movement of propylene [1] Cost Factors - OPEC+ continues to maintain increased production, but geopolitical tensions are causing fluctuations in oil prices [1] - External propane prices are on the rise, impacting overall cost structures [1] Strategic Recommendations - A neutral stance is suggested for single positions, while monitoring the main PDH restart for potential high-level hedging opportunities [1] - No specific strategies are recommended for cross-commodity trading at this time [1]
丙烯:主力合约6420元/吨,下游开工与利润有变化
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-14 14:20