全球对等关税落地，美财长断言“中国经济将崩溃”，高兴的太早了

Group 1 - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. has led to significant increases in tariffs on various countries, with Syria facing the highest rate of 41% and Canada seeing an increase from 25% to 35% [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's claim that the "Chinese model is collapsing" contrasts sharply with his previous statements about positive U.S.-China trade relations, indicating a shift in rhetoric amid stalled negotiations [1] - China's foreign trade dependence has decreased from over 60% in the early 2000s to an estimated 32.5% in 2024, challenging the narrative of Chinese economic vulnerability [1] Group 2 - Despite a 10.6% decline in exports to the U.S. in the first half of 2025, China's overall exports grew by 5.9%, with significant increases in exports to the EU (6.6%) and ASEAN (13%) [3] - U.S. companies remain heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing, with 47.9% of textiles and 29.8% of electrical equipment still labeled as "Made in China," highlighting the challenges of decoupling from Chinese supply chains [3] - The narrative of "overcapacity" in China is portrayed as a Western fabrication to distract from the lack of competitiveness in U.S. manufacturing [3] Group 3 - China's exports of electric vehicles grew by 23%, and its solar components account for over 80% of the global market, indicating a shift towards high-end manufacturing as a new economic driver [5] - The extension of the tariff suspension period following the Stockholm talks reflects the interdependence of the U.S. and Chinese economies, as both countries seek to stabilize their economic conditions [5] - The U.S. inflation rate, which reached 2.7% in June, underscores the necessity for American reliance on Chinese goods to mitigate inflationary pressures [5] Group 4 - The assertion that "gravity laws" apply to both China and the U.S. suggests that the economic challenges faced by the U.S. are equally significant, particularly in relation to inflation and political pressures [7] - The introduction of a 40% "anti-circumvention" tax indicates the complexities and potential repercussions of high tariffs on global supply chains [7] - As the deadline for high tariffs approaches, the impact will be felt across all participants in the global industrial chain, not just China [7]