降息预期强烈，商品价格迎来全面上涨

Group 1: Industrial Metals - The market anticipates a continued rise in industrial metal prices due to weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls and seasonal demand improvements during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2] - Copper supply is under pressure due to a production accident at Grasberg, with the SMM import copper concentrate index reporting a decrease of $0.45 per ton week-on-week [2] - Domestic aluminum production capacity remains high, with an increase in operating rates and improved order conditions reported by most profile enterprises [2] Group 2: Energy Metals - Cobalt supply continues to decrease, leading to expectations of a significant price increase, while lithium demand is optimistic as the traditional peak season approaches [3] - The market may experience a temporary supply tightness for lithium due to faster demand growth compared to supply [3] - Nickel prices are expected to rise due to limited supply from nickel salt plants and ongoing purchasing demand from downstream enterprises [3] Group 3: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are reaching new highs driven by strong expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts following disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data [4] - Geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are contributing to risk premiums in gold prices [4] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit as key drivers [4]