中国订单归零，美国豆农：中国不要，只能搅碎！贸易战反噬来了

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the severe impact of China's ban on U.S. soybean imports, leading to a crisis for American farmers during a record harvest season, with orders from China dropping to zero, resulting in significant financial losses for farmers [1][3]. Group 1: Current Situation of U.S. Soybean Farmers - U.S. farmers are facing a paradoxical situation where a record soybean harvest coincides with a complete lack of orders from China, their largest customer, leading to prices plummeting by 40% compared to three years ago [3][5]. - The cost of producing soybeans has exceeded $600 per acre, while current market prices in North Dakota are as low as $8.83 per bushel, far below the cost of production [3][5]. - Farmers are caught in a dilemma of either selling at a loss or incurring high storage costs if they wait until winter [3]. Group 2: China's Strategic Shift - China's decision to stop importing U.S. soybeans is not a sudden reaction but rather a result of years of strategic planning, with 71% of its soybean imports now sourced from Brazil [5]. - Brazil set a record by exporting 15.7 million tons of soybeans to China in March alone, indicating a significant shift in supply chains [5]. - Additionally, China's domestic initiatives to reduce reliance on soybean meal have led to an 8% decrease in usage over the first ten months of the year [5]. Group 3: Political Implications - The agricultural states that traditionally supported Trump are now feeling the brunt of the trade war, with significant backlash from farmers, including the Indiana Agricultural Association withdrawing sponsorship for the Republican midterm elections [7]. - Trump's attempts to negotiate with China have been met with silence, further exacerbating the situation for farmers [7]. Group 4: Global Trade Dynamics - The global soybean trade landscape has shifted, with Brazil expected to produce 169 million tons in 2024, capable of meeting China's demand without U.S. soybeans [9]. - The U.S. lacks a comparable buyer to China, highlighting the vulnerability of American farmers in the current trade environment [9]. Group 5: Broader Insights - The article emphasizes that in today's globalized economy, unilateral dominance is unsustainable, and proactive strategies are essential for resilience [11][12]. - The situation serves as a reminder that dependency poses significant risks, and maintaining control is crucial for both nations and individuals [11][12].