2025下半年房价涨跌出现四个变化，买不买心里有数了！快来看看

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is undergoing significant changes in the second half of 2025, influenced by four major trends that are reshaping home-buying decisions [1] Group 1: Mortgage Rates - Mortgage rates are at a historic low, with the average first-home loan rate dropping to 3.8%, down 0.5 percentage points from the beginning of the year, marking the lowest level in nearly a decade [2] - In major cities like Shanghai and Beijing, rates have fallen below 3.6%, significantly reducing monthly payments and total interest costs for homebuyers [2] - The decline in rates is attributed to the central bank's loose monetary policy, including two cuts in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing over 1.2 trillion yuan in long-term funds [2] Group 2: Regional Disparities - There is an increasing regional disparity in the real estate market, with first-tier cities seeing a 2.3% year-on-year increase in new home prices, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 3.1% decline [3] - Cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Hangzhou are witnessing price increases, while resource-dependent cities are facing significant downward pressure on prices [3] - Population trends are closely linked to price movements, with first-tier cities experiencing a net population increase of 435,000 in the first half of 2025, contrasting with a population decline of 287,000 in Northeast China [3] Group 3: Developer Promotions - Developers are under financial pressure, leading to unprecedented promotional activities, with sales for the top 100 real estate companies down 17.6% year-on-year [4] - Various aggressive sales strategies are being employed, including "zero down payment" and "buy one get one free" offers, particularly in second and third-tier cities [4] - The average discount offered by developers ranges from 8% to 15%, with some projects offering discounts as high as 20% [4] Group 4: Policy Adjustments - Real estate policy adjustments are becoming more precise and differentiated, moving away from a one-size-fits-all approach [6] - As of early September, 32 cities have adjusted their purchase restrictions based on local conditions, with first-tier cities tightening controls while many third and fourth-tier cities have relaxed restrictions [6] - The overall sales area of commercial housing from January to August 2025 was 860 million square meters, down 5.8% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has been narrowing, indicating potential market stabilization [8] Group 5: Rational Home Buying - The current market emphasizes rational home buying, focusing on actual housing needs and asset allocation rather than speculative investments [10][12] - The national housing vacancy rate has risen to 16.8%, indicating that the overall housing supply meets the residential needs of the population [12] - Experts predict that while first and second-tier cities may see stable or rising prices, many third and fourth-tier cities will continue to face downward pressure [12]