非银存款连续两月大幅多增 居民“存款搬家”趋势强化

Core Insights - The M1-M2 spread has narrowed, indicating increased liquidity and a trend of "deposit migration" as residents shift funds from bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions [1][2][3] - August financial data shows a significant increase in non-bank deposits, suggesting a potential shift of funds towards equity markets [2][6] Monetary Supply and Deposit Trends - As of the end of August, M2 stood at 331.98 trillion yuan, growing 8.8% year-on-year, while M1 reached 111.23 trillion yuan, up 6% year-on-year [2][3] - The M1-M2 spread narrowed to -2.8%, the lowest since June 2021, reflecting a trend of more funds being converted into demand deposits, which can stimulate consumption and investment [2][3] - Non-bank deposits increased by 1.18 trillion yuan in August, contrasting with a decline in household deposits, indicating a shift towards investment in capital markets [3][4] Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that the narrowing M1-M2 spread reflects enhanced liquidity as households and businesses convert time deposits into demand deposits for consumption or investment [3][4] - The trend of "deposit migration" is expected to continue, with non-bank deposits serving as a key indicator of capital market inflows [5][7] Consumer Behavior and Loan Trends - Despite the increase in non-bank deposits, households exhibit a cautious approach towards future economic conditions, maintaining a "more saving, less borrowing" attitude [8][9] - The total increase in household loans was only 711 billion yuan in the first eight months, significantly lower than previous years, indicating a trend of deleveraging among consumers [8][9] Policy Responses - The government has implemented various measures to stimulate consumer spending, including issuing consumption vouchers and providing interest subsidies for personal loans [10] - The effectiveness of these policies in boosting retail loan growth will depend on improvements in employment and income levels [10]