国际能源署报告显示——供过于求仍是国际石油市场隐忧

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) report highlights that the international oil market is currently influenced by geopolitical tensions and concerns over oversupply [2][3] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical concerns are intensifying, particularly with diminishing hopes for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, leading to fears of supply shortages due to potential new sanctions from Western countries against Russia and Iran [2] - Despite a recent decline in oil exports from Iran and Russia, the impact of sanctions on supply and trade flows has been relatively limited so far [2] - The European Union plans to ban imports of refined products from Russian oil starting in early 2026, which may significantly affect international oil trade dynamics in the coming months [2] Supply and Production Dynamics - The oversupply issue remains a significant concern in the current international oil market, with the "OPEC+" group initiating a second round of production cuts, yet international oil prices have only seen minor fluctuations [3] - Eight countries within "OPEC+" plan to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, indicating a slow recovery from the 1.65 million barrels per day cut implemented in April 2023 [3] - As of September, actual production increases from "OPEC+" since Q1 2025 have only reached 1.5 million barrels per day, significantly below the previously announced target of 2.5 million barrels per day [3] Global Oil Production Forecast - Global oil production is expected to rise by 2.7 million barrels per day this year, reaching 105.8 million barrels per day, with further increases projected for 2026 [4] - Non-"OPEC+" countries are anticipated to contribute significantly to this increase, with production rising by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and slightly over 1 million barrels per day in 2026 [4] Demand Projections - Global oil demand is projected to increase by 740,000 barrels per day in 2025, with stable overall demand outlook [5] - Developed economies are experiencing robust oil demand growth, while emerging economies show relatively weak consumption [5] Refining Capacity and Trends - Global refinery crude processing surged by 400,000 barrels per day in August, reaching a record 85.1 million barrels per day, but is expected to decline by 3.5 million barrels per day in October due to seasonal maintenance [5] - Refining margins are expected to remain strong due to improving profitability of gasoline products [5] Inventory Levels - Global oil inventories increased by 26.5 million barrels in July, with a cumulative rise of 187 million barrels since the beginning of the year [6] - Despite the increase, global oil inventories remain 67 million barrels below the five-year average [6]