李嘉诚预言“应验”？国内41.5%的城镇家庭，未来将面临“2个问题”

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is undergoing significant changes, as predicted by Li Ka-shing in 2019, with declining property prices and investment levels becoming evident in recent statistics [1][10]. Market Trends - In 2024, the national real estate development investment is projected to be 10,028 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, while the sales area of new commercial housing has dropped by 12.9% to 97,385 million square meters [1]. - Major cities are experiencing a significant decline in property prices, with some areas seeing reductions of 20% to 30% [1][5]. Demographic Changes - China's population has experienced negative growth for three consecutive years, with 9.54 million births and 10.93 million deaths in 2024, leading to a net decrease of 1.39 million people [3]. - The total fertility rate has fallen to around 1.2, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1, indicating a long-term decline in housing demand [3]. Investment Challenges - Property liquidity has sharply decreased, making it increasingly difficult for homeowners to sell their properties at desired prices [5]. - Rental yields have fallen below 2% in many cities, failing to cover basic holding costs, while property taxes are increasing the financial burden on multiple property owners [7]. Long-term Outlook - The trend of population aging is expected to have a long-term structural impact on the real estate market, with projections indicating that the elderly population will exceed 321 million by 2025 [3][8]. - Historical examples, such as Japan's real estate market decline, suggest that the impacts of demographic changes on property markets can be prolonged and significant [8]. Strategic Recommendations - Experts suggest that families holding multiple properties should consider selling at reduced prices to secure their investments [13]. - For first-time buyers, the current market adjustments may present opportunities for more affordable housing options [14][15]. Economic Context - The adjustment in the real estate market is seen as a necessary response to the over-reliance on property for economic growth, with a shift towards innovation-driven economic models [17][27]. - The emergence of new investment channels, such as stocks and bonds, is providing families with diversified options beyond real estate [18]. Societal Implications - The shift in housing demand and investment strategies reflects broader societal changes, including evolving educational priorities and the development of rental markets [19][20]. - The adjustment in property prices is viewed as beneficial for young people seeking stable living conditions and for optimizing resource allocation in society [27].